Surface water flooding occurs when rainfall is unable to enter a watercourse or artificial drainage system and instead ponds or flows across the surface. In Scotland, the National Flood Risk Assessment (NFRA) estimates that 38% of flooding impacts are due to surface water (NFRA, 2011). Providing real-time surface water flood risk forecasts is challenging due to the dominant meteorological driver being convective storms, which are often highly localised and notoriously difficult to forecast.
|Hampden Park is one of the venues for the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. |
Photo by Jmorrison230582 in public domain.
CEH’s Grid-to-Grid model (Moore et al., 2006, 2007; Bell et al., 2009) is a key component of the new tool. CEH scientists Bob Moore and Steve Cole provided pre-operational training in the system to SEPA and Met Office staff.
Steve Cole highlighted that, “Due to high uncertainty in forecasting the precise location of rainfall, particularly in convective situations, a probabilistic ensemble approach has been needed for the new Glasgow surface water flood risk forecast tool. A particularly novel aspect is that the tool goes beyond forecasting the likely location of surface water flooding to embrace information on potential impacts on people, property and transport. This should help emergency responders make more timely and better informed decisions.”
Further information on the new system is available from the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service, who provide regular progress updates:
- Surface water flood alerting: project update (November 2013)
More information on the Centre of Expertise for Waters (CREW) project
Surface water flood forecasting for urban communities