CEH science at EGU 2015

CEH scientists are among those presenting research updates to the European Geosciences Union General Assembly in Vienna this week (12-17 April 2015). The meeting brings together scientists from all over the world to discuss aspects of Earth, planetary and space sciences.

Abstracts of oral and poster presentations led by CEH scientists and students can be found below:

• Sources of greenhouse gases and carbon monoxide in central London (UK). Carole Helfter
• Ecosystem-scale trade-offs between impacts of ozone and reactive nitrogen. Ed Rowe
• Eddy-covariance data with low signal-to-noise: time-lag determination, uncertainties and limits of detection. Ben Langford
• Concentrations and behaviour of atmospheric ammonia above the Amazon rain forest. Eiko Nemitz
• Deriving a speciated atmospheric nitrogen budget at Auchencorth Moss, a background in south east Scotland. Marsailidh Twigg
• Hydrological assessment of radar-raingauge merging techniques using the Grid-to-Grid model. Paul Mattingley
• Development of a UV miniaturised Fourier Transform Spectrometer (MicroFTS) for the detection of Dissolved Organic Carbon in water. Paul Scholefield
• Hydroecological impacts of climate change modelled for a lowland UK wetland. Andrew House.
• Effects of ploughing on land-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gases in a managed temperate grassland in central Scotland. Carole Helfter
• Intercomparison of six fast-response sensors for the eddy-covariance flux measurement of nitrous oxide over agricultural grassland. Eiko Nemitz
• Assessing the impact of African wetlands on rainfall. Christopher Taylor 
• Humus and humility in ecosystem model design. Ed Rowe
• Attributing spatial and temporal changes in soil C in the UK to environmental drivers. Amy Thomas
• Sustained impact of drought on wet shrublands mediated by soil physical changes. Maria Dominguez
• Evidence of change in UK atmospheric composition as a result of Icelandic volcanic emissions in 2014. Marsailidh Twigg
• Effective Eruption Modelling project: assessing UK impacts of trace species and sulphur deposition. Christine Braban
• The sensitivity of global ozone predictions to dry deposition schemes and their response to climate change. Federico Centoni
• Detecting soil moisture impacts on convective initiation in Europe. Christopher Taylor
• Soil organic carbon mining versus priming - controls of soil organic carbon stocks along a management gradient. M Carmen Blanes
• Land surface energy budget during dry spells: global CMIP5 AMIP simulations vs satellite observations. Belen Gallego-Elvira
• Probability density functions for use when calculating standardised drought indices. Cecilia Svensson
• A scenario neutral approach to assess low flow sensitivity to climate change. Eric Sauquet
• MetNH3: Metrology for ammonia in ambient air. Christine Braban

Additionally, Dr Eiko Nemitz is a convenor of two sessions on Biosphere-atmosphere exchanges while Bob Moore is convening a PICO session on hydrological forecasting.

On Thursday, Prof Christel Prudhomme is one of the panel of experts taking part in the Young Hydrologic Society's session on Meet the expert in hydrology - The mystery of evaporation.

Good luck to everyone taking part!

Not in Vienna? All great debates, union symposia, press conf., some medal lectures at #EGU15 are being streamed live! http://t.co/4ONMdfAvZ6
— EGU (@EuroGeosciences) April 13, 2015

Dr Paul Scholefield is one of the CEH scientists presenting at EGU2015 this week:

Very pleased to be presenting on the @STFC_Matters carbon sensor today at #EGU15 @CEHScienceNews @HughMortimer http://t.co/CqUKvnHrwE
— Paul Scholefield (@DrScholefield) April 14, 2015

Below, poster presentation by Christine Braban and colleagues in the Natural Hazards session on Atmosphere emissions from volcanoes and their dispersion:

Effusive Eruption Modelling project: Assessing UK impacts of trace species and sulphur deposition

EGU 2015 is taking place at the Austria Center Vienna. Photo: CC BY-SA 3.0 BambooBeast

Related links

European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2015

CEH Biosphere-Atmosphere Interactions science area

CEH Natural Hazards science area

One year on: reviewing the floods of 2013/2014

This month’s issue of Weather, the journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, takes a look back at last winter, asking “How unusual were the storms and floods experienced by many areas of the UK during late 2013 and early 2014?”

As well as papers on the weather systems (Kendon and McCarthy) and coastal flooding (Sibley et al), Katie Muchan from CEH together with colleagues Jamie Hannaford and Simon Parry, and Melinda Lewis of the British Geological Survey, review the inland flooding, which included prolonged river flooding in many areas – notably on the Somerset Levels and in the Thames Valley – and the opening of a large number of sinkholes, bringing damage to property and affecting livelihoods.

Walking through flood water. Photo: Julia Lawrence

In the paper, Katie and her colleagues outline several key aspects of the events of last winter, concluding:

“A defining aspect of the winter was the occurrence of multiple types of flooding. The combination of coastal, pluvial, fluvial and groundwater flooding in winter is not unusual, but its extent, frequency and severity through the winter of 2013/2014 was extraordinary.” 

They add, “The simultaneous occurrence of multiple types of flooding and other weather hazards presented a major challenge for the emergency services.”

Data from the National Hydrological Monitoring Programme (NHMP) forms the source of much of the material discussed in the Muchan et al paper.

Average winter outflows (m³s^-1) for Great Britain 1961-2013

The NHMP, mentioned on many previous occasions in this blog, collates data for 104 index river flow gauging stations and 37 index groundwater boreholes in the UK, and produces monthly Hydrological Summaries.

Related links

Full citation for the paper: Muchan K, Lewis M, Hannaford J & Parry S (2015) The winter storms of 2013/2014 in the UK: hydrological responses and impacts, Weather, 70(2), 55-61. It is open access.

Weather, Special Issue: The storms of winter 2013/2014 in the UK 

Monthly Hydrological Summaries for the UK

More on the NHMP: Rainfall, UK floods and the potential impacts of climate change? 6 January 2014

Natural Hazards Science Area

CEH's new Science Strategy identifies three interdependent, major societal and environmental challenges: Securing the Value of Nature, Building Resilience to Environmental Hazards, and Managing Environmental Change. We're delivering our strategy by Science Areas and underpinning activities, and over the next few weeks we are profiling these on our blog.

In this post we focus on our Natural Hazards Science Area, which includes some of our work on floods and droughts. Natural hazards also include threats from parasites, pathogens and invasive species, and threats from natural air pollution incidents.

Duncan Wingham, chief executive @NERCScience, visits CEH today & finds out more about flood forecasting research pic.twitter.com/ecNeJoPLZG
— CEH Science News (@CEHScienceNews) February 14, 2014

Post by Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH).

Natural hazards are of increasing concern for humanity because of population growth and increased societal vulnerability due to trends in urbanisation and land-use change. They have been identified by the National Security Review as some of the most significant risks to the UK in terms of economic, social and environmental consequences.

A key demand is to improve our prediction and estimation of natural hazards and develop knowledge to better manage and minimise their impacts on our society, economy and environment.

RT @Michaelcranston Encouraging findings for forecasting #floods in rapid response catchments http://t.co/fs8Gd4rl1L
— CEH Science News (@CEHScienceNews) September 2, 2013

MT @ChrisBraban: co-authored volcano response planning report incl #airquality knowledge gaps/eruption response info http://t.co/CVmqKgruN9
— CEH Science News (@CEHScienceNews) October 2, 2013

Hydro-meteorological science is an important element of our research. Within CEH we have teams of scientists working on furthering our understanding of hydrological processes, water resources, water information management, hydrological status and reporting, the climate system, hydrological modelling and risk, and hydrological modelling and forecasting. Our science and data played a key role in informing UK operational agencies during the recent flooding events.

Scientists from @CEHScienceNews & @BritGeoSurvey comment on #flooding situation in the UK http://t.co/1AKZty48eK
— CEH Science News (@CEHScienceNews) February 11, 2014

The recent storms and floods in the UK – new report from @metoffice & @CEHScienceNews http://t.co/kVoxrrarKz
— CEH Science News (@CEHScienceNews) February 9, 2014

Our future research objectives include the development of physical and statistical models to better quantify the current and future risks from extreme rainfall and floods at multiple temporal and spatial scales. We are also developing web-based tools for seasonal forecasting of river flows to support flood and drought management in the UK and overseas.

What is a drought? - read more on the CEH website

CEH also has an important research role in helping to develop solutions to tackle problems caused by biological invasions.

. @BritishEcolSoc members @invasidora and @UKLadybirds gave evidence to the EAC yesterday. Find out how they got on: http://t.co/dN6XGjP9ZI
— BES Policy Team (@BESPolicy) January 23, 2014

We are working on methods to supply predictions of their arrival and spread, underpinned by rigorous risk assessment. We will deliver new systems to predict the arrival of invasive non-native species with particular focus on their pathways of arrival, spread and associated disease pathogens.

A new map of good habitats for an invasive kind of #rhododendron may help control the spread of #SuddenOakDeath http://t.co/JGqYJJS91b
— Planet Earth Online (@PlanetEarthnews) April 18, 2013

Find out more about our Natural Hazards Science Area, including a Science Area Summary [PDF], on the CEH website.

Additional information

CEH Science Strategy 2014-2019

Staff page of Nick Reynard, Natural Hazards Science Area Lead

Scientists from CEH comment on the ongoing flooding situation in the UK - 13 February 2014

Scientists from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology have provided the following new comments on the ongoing storms and flooding situation in the UK.

You can read our previous comments (published on the 11 February 2014) here.

Prof Richard Harding,  Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, on the December/January/February floods

"The weather in the last two months has been exceptional. It has been characterised by frequent rain systems tracking across the south of Britain, often associated with high winds. In January the rainfall totals were locally 300% above average and over 200% over a large part of southern England. The result of this relentless rainfall has been that soils and underlying aquifers are now full and the rivers and wetlands have more water flowing through them than has been observed for many decades.

"The repeated passage of storms over England has been caused by a persistent Jet stream to the south of its usual position. This persistence may be linked to the reduction of sea ice in the Arctic or warm sub-tropical sea temperatures. We have observed in the last five decades a rise in temperatures and an increase in the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere – these almost inevitably lead to an intensification of storms and increases in rainfall. Indeed we have observed an increase in the intensity of rainfall in this period. The last two decades have also brought exceptional extremes in our rivers and groundwater– with floods in 2000/01, 2002/3, 2007, 20011/12 and now 2013/14 interspersed with droughts in 2003 and 2011/12. All these trends are entirely consistent with the effects of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere.

"In the short term the saturated nature of the ground means that rivers and low lying areas are very vulnerable to flooding. In the longer term this exceptional weather and extensive floods highlights that we are going to have to adapt to much more variability and extremes in the future."

Mr Nick Reynard, Science Area Lead for Natural Hazards, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

"After the devastating summer floods of 2007 the Pitt Review carefully analysed all aspects of how this country prepares for and deals with flooding. Post Pitt there have been two key developments in the implementation of flood forecasting science to better predict both the risks and impact of flood events. The first is the development of the Flood Forecasting Centre, which combines meteorological and hydrological expertise to provide forecasts for all natural forms of flooding - river, surface water, tidal/coastal and groundwater. River flow forecasting is underpinned by the Grid 2 Grid model developed by the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology.

The second significant development has been an increased focus on surface water flooding - many of the 55,000 homes affected in 2007 were flooded by a surface water event. Surface water flooding is a key focus of the recently formed Natural Hazards Partnership, which provides information, advice and analysis to government and emergency responders across the UK in the preparation, response and review of natural hazards. and brings together expertise from across the UK's leading public sector agencies and research institutes."

Mr Terry Marsh, Leader of the National Hydrological Monitoring Programme, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

"The tempestuous weather affecting the UK has continued through the first two weeks of February 2014. It appears likely that winter rainfall totals across much of Southern Britain will be the highest on record (in the NCIC series from 1910). As a result river flows have continued to increase in parts of the country, most notably in the Thames and the Severn basins. In recent days on the Thames river flows are approaching or have exceeded maxima recorded in the last major event (November 1974). The high river flows have led to extensive floodplain inundations aggravated by groundwater flooding in many vulnerable parts of the catchment."

Scientists from CEH and BGS comment on the ongoing flooding situation in the UK - 11 February 2014

Scientists from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and their NERC colleagues in the British Geological Survey have provided the following comments on the ongoing storms and flooding situation in the UK.

We published further comments on 13 February 2014. Read them here.


Mr Terry Marsh, Leader of the National Hydrological Monitoring Programme, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

"One of the issues for the public perception to take on board is what we are currently seeing is the Thames exercising its natural sovereignty over its floodplain. This happens occasionally and in a sense it’s good for people to recognise that this happens. Management needs to limit the damage but it would be, I suggest, even worse if we found ourselves in the position where people thought because we’ve not seen this extent of flooding for 40 years that it’s not going to happen. It’s a natural part of the way rainfall patterns translate into river flow patterns."

Dr David Boorman, Science Area Lead for Water Resources, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

"A key question in any unusual hydrological situation, such as a drought or a period of wet weather as we are experiencing now, is how long will it continue? We are working with a number of partners to provide a long-range hydrological forecast for the UK. Forecasts of this type are already produced on an operational basis in a number of countries including the USA and Australia.

“The project involves bringing together information on the current weather, soil moisture, river flows and groundwater levels from across the UK, and using a number of methods of exploring possible future hydrological conditions, for example, using numerical models of river flows and groundwater models driven by long-range weather outlooks."

Mr Nick Reynard, Science Area Lead for Natural Hazards, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

"The cluster of drought and flood events through the early years of the 21st century and the recent runoff and recharge patterns, are near to the extreme range of historical variability as we currently understand it , and therefore also raise the question that they may reflect anthropogenic climate change. It is important to note, however that how river flows respond to extreme rainfall varies greatly because of geology, soils, land use etc, meaning that it is difficult to detect signals of climate change in observed events, and to generalise the impacts of climate change for future flooding. Tidal flood risk is increasing as sea levels rise but the outlook is more complex in relation to fluvial flooding."

Prof Alan Jenkins, Director of Water and Pollution Science, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

"The long duration of the current flooding episode and its wide spatial extent make it an exceptional event. Relentless storm events over many weeks have combined to produce widespread flooding at a scale rarely seen in the UK. Over 5000 homes have flooded and transport infrastructure has been disrupted across the UK.

“The key to mitigating the impact of any flood is understanding that every catchment works in a different way. For example the current flood situation on the Somerset Levels is the result of a different range of processes to those currently affecting the lower reaches of the River Thames. The operational agencies are doing a sterling job on the ground and it’s important to recognise that hundreds of thousands of homes have been protected by the UK’s flood defence infrastructure.

“Many potential solutions have been talked about over the last few weeks as ways of minimising flood risk. This is a complex issue and over the next few months it is important that experts from the key agencies and research institutes sit down and carefully analyse whether there are lessons to be learnt from the current flood episode."

Dr Chris Huntingford, Climate Modeller, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

"In terms of climate change, there is a desperate need to move away from the almost Punch-and-Judy debate of either every extreme is due to climate change, or the contrast of everything is simply natural variability. Desperately needed is the on-going calculation of whether higher atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are changing the chances of rainfall events, as recently witnessed, occurring.

To work this out, weather forecast models that analyse the atmosphere in such fine detail as to model storm tracks, need to be operated for different levels of modelled carbon dioxide. Running these for hundreds of modelled years for alternative carbon dioxide concentrations, so as to build up statistical profiles of rainfall patterns, presents one of the biggest computational challenges ever tackled."

Mr Simon Parry, Hydrologist, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

"Each one of these individual events has not been particularly outstanding, they've been broadly along the lines of what we would expect for a typical winter storm in the UK. What's been notable about it, and different from what we've seen in the past, is the persistence. The combination of high tides, strong winds and a succession of rain-bearing low pressure systems has led to widespread and sustained high flow conditions over a two month timeframe."

Mr Andrew McKenzie, Groundwater Information Manager, British Geological Survey

"In early December 2013 groundwater levels over much of the UK were normal for the time of year. The extreme rainfall in the southern part of England over the New Year and into early January had a dramatic impact on levels in the faster responding aquifers and spectacular rises occurred in groundwater levels in some aquifers. For example, groundwater levels in the Chalk at Tilshead on Salisbury Plain rose by about 20 metres in just two weeks. These rapid rises triggered some localised groundwater flooding, mainly in the upper parts of Chalk catchments. If rainfall had eased at that point the empty storage in the lower catchment might have been able to absorb the inflows. However, as rainfall has continued to fall the lower parts of many catchments have been saturated, and prolonged high river levels will have contributed to exceptional recharge.

“At the beginning of February record monthly groundwater levels were measured across many aquifers, and as levels in February are naturally high, these records are often all time records for the sites concerned. Record levels were established in the Chalk of Wessex, the North Downs and Hampshire. The wet weather also reversed a declining trend in some of the North West Permo-Triassic aquifers.

“Consequently, emergence of groundwater has been observed at many localities across southern England where groundwater flooding has been previously recorded. The high water levels on the interfluves (the upper parts of groundwater catchments) will gradually feed into the lower parts of the catchments, over a period of weeks to months, so groundwater flooding is expected to persist."

Additional information

Journalists can contact the CEH Press Office or the BGS Press Office for further context on the UK's hydrological situation. 

Further information from CEH can be found in the following blog posts:

Record breakers? Climate change, statistics and the recent UK floods - 9 February 2014

Rainfall, UK floods and the potential impacts of climate change? - 6 January 2014

CEH worked with the Met Office on a report on the recent storms and floods in the UK.