Assessing and managing the risks of climate change

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published this week, says that the effects of climate change are already occurring on all continents and across the oceans. In many cases, it warns, the world is ill-prepared for risks from a changing climate. There are opportunities to respond to such risks, it says, though they will be difficult to manage with high levels of warming.

The report, titled Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, from Working Group II of the IPCC, details the impacts of climate change to date, the future risks from a changing climate, and the opportunities for effective action to reduce risks.

Responding to its publication, scientists from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) made the following comments:

Dr Richard Harding, Senior Hydrologist

“The first report of the IPCC fifth assessment concluded that human activities were already having an impact on our climate. This second report assesses the considerable number of studies investigating the current and future impacts of these climate changes and possible adaption strategies. The report concludes that warming increases the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Some ecosystems and cultures are already at risk from climate change and there is a warning of irreversible changes. In the future we will see increasing water scarcity and negative impacts on food production. Climate change is increasing the risks of extreme events (flooding, high temperatures etc) and the impacts are greatest for the most disadvantaged communities.

These impacts can be moderated by reducing their rate of change by mitigation, i.e. reducing our greenhouse gas emissions, and planning. The impacts from recent climate extremes show a considerable vulnerability and exposure to present day variability. This vulnerability will increase as the climate changes. The impacts, however, can be moderated by adaptive planning, by all sections of society. A first step towards this adaption is reducing our exposure to current extremes - this is a double win, giving protection now and increased resilience in the future.

This report is yet another wake-up call to take action on climate change. It illustrates that it is not too late to take action but the consequences of inaction will be wide-ranging and serious.”

Dr Stephen Thackeray, Lake ecologist and project lead of Shifting seasons, climate change & ecosystems consequences:

“The second report of the IPCC fifth assessment capitalises upon the increasing body of evidence that climate change has already had an effect upon wild plants and animals, and the wider ecosystems within which they interact. The report makes it clear that these effects may be complex because ecosystems respond to the interactive effects of a changing climate and many other stressors, such as habitat modification and pollution. It is clear that we need to understand, and plan for, these interactive effects if we are to successfully manage the natural world under ongoing climate change.”

Additional information

CEH scientists take part in research looking at the impacts of climate change on species and the environment and have an extensive network of long-term monitoring and experimental field sites. Analysis and modelling of these data provide early warning of change and are helping to deliver management solutions for land and freshwaters across the UK and globally.

Climate change is increasing the risk of extreme events.

Research involving CEH showed that the
Comma butterfly has expanded its UK range
northwards rapidly. Photo: Shutterstock

Examples of CEH climate change research

Future Flows and Groundwater Levels project details and datasets

Shifting seasons, climate change and ecosystem consequences project details

Ecological Processes & Resilience science area 

Meeting the Challenges of Environmental Change - CEH's Science Strategy 2014-2019

Related CEH news on climate change research

Drought and climate change - an uncertain future?

Water and climate change in the UK - assessing the evidence

Climate impacts evidence for biodiversity changes in the UK's countryside

Butterfly expanding northwards with warming temperatures and changed diet

Accelerating climate change exerts strong pressure on Europe's mountain flora

Wildlife responds increasingly rapidly to climate change

Posted by Paulette Burns

Has the world ceased to care about biodiversity loss?

A guest blog by Dr Terry Parr of CEH, who spoke at a side event during the recent Convention on Biological Diversity (COP11) meeting in Hyderabad, India.

Has the world ceased to care about biodiversity loss? Judging by the dearth of UK media coverage of the UN's Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) high level conference of national government representatives held in Hyderabad, India over the past two weeks, you'd be forgiven for thinking so.

I dipped into the middle of the event and tested the mood of the things. At a previous CBD meeting governments agreed on some challenging new targets to halt biodiversity loss and maintain essential ecosystem services by 2020. But here in Hyderabad, discussions on how much the rich north would pay the poor south to help achieve those targets were faltering against the hard rock of economic reality. My own small contribution was also in danger of becoming irrelevant.

I was there as co-organiser of an EC side-event on "Mechanisms for delivering biodiversity benefits from REDD+". REDD+ is a new UNFCCC programme that aims to pay tropical countries to reduce destruction and degradation of their forests.  But it was becoming apparent that the initially high hopes that REDD+ would also deliver co-benefits in the form of biodiversity and sustainable development were also being undermined.

Our side event discussed the implementation of REDD+ from policy, business and research perspectives. I talked about a new EC project (called ROBIN) involving 12 European and Latin American partners, coordinated by CEH. I explained how our socio-ecological research will underpin the development of practical decision support and monitoring tools. But I also stressed how it would also help us understand the risks we take if we fail to take into account "the ROle of BIodiversity in climate change mitigatioN" (ROBIN).

And how did it all turn out in the end? Well, there was a last-minute compromise: developed countries will double funding to support efforts in developing states to help reach the 2020 targets and a call for enhanced collaboration between the CBD and the UN climate change initiatives, including REDD+.  A result of sorts. So perhaps my time was not wasted after all.

Terry Parr

Dr Terry Parr, head of a section at CEH's Lancaster site which works across Water and Biodiversity Research programmes, leads the CEH topic on "Observations, Patterns and Predictions for Biodiversity" and is involved with several national and international ecological research networks.

Additional information

Convention on Biological Diversity COP11 (8-19 October 2012)

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

REDD+ programme

Role of Biodiversity in Climate Change Mitigation (ROBIN)

Staff page and research interests of Dr Terry Parr, CEH